Weird stuff tends to happen in the betting world during the NBA Playoffs.
The Celtics have been favored in every game but one this postseason, yet they have lost eight games. They lost the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat — two of which were in Boston and all of which they were favored. When they finally got listed as an underdog, getting 1.5 points in Miami ahead of Game 4, the Celts won by 17.
When Joe Mazzulla’s squad started Game 5 strong back at TD Garden, BetMGM and all the major sportsbooks adjusted the NBA Finals odds. The Celtics leapfrogged Miami on the outright league winner futures boards in the second quarter. At that point, Boston had only won consecutive quarters twice during the entire series.
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Oddsmakers now like the reigning Eastern Conference champions’ odds to win it all more than the Heat even though Erik Spoelstra’s squad had a 3-1 advantage and were just days removed from having a 3-0 series lead that has always produced a 100-percent success rate of advancing.
The analogies to the 2004 Boston Red Sox have been plentiful. David Ortiz has advised the Celtics. Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown channeled their inner Kevin Millar ahead of Game 4 in South Beach when they said, “Don’t let us get one!” New Englanders were ecstatic to see both Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez in attendance, two of the star Yankees who fell victim to the greatest ALCS comeback in MLB history. All Boston needs now is Matt Ryan of the 2016 Atlanta Falcons to show up for Game 6.
Or maybe the Celtics don’t need luck or superstition or juju on their side. Maybe they have just found themselves as a team, and for that matter, found their collective scope as a firing squad.
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BetMGM and other books probably jumped the gun by flipping the NBA Finals odds script during the second frame on Thursday, but Boston had already arguably flipped the script on the series. Oddsmakers likely think the Celtics pose a greater threat to the Nuggets, who sit and wait to see which opponent they will eventually end up playing.
That’s probably why the Celtics are still listed as slight +115 underdogs on the Eastern Conference Finals moneyline and the Heat are moderate -135 favorites. Wait, you’re probably thinking, Boston has shorter odds than Miami to win the NBA Finals but longer odds than Miami to win the Eastern Conference title?
Yes. The sports betting world works in mysterious ways. Boston jumped to +350 to hoist their 18th NBA Championship banner on Thursday, pushing Miami back to +450, and the gap between their respective odds has only widened since then. The Celtics are now +280 to win it all, while Miami is a distant +550. Yet, Miami is favored to win this series. As Walter Sobchak from “The Big Lebowski” would say “Has the whole world gone crazy?
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Oddsmakers clearly think Boston matches up with Denver much better than Miami. Boston has much better overall size and youth to throw at the Nuggets. Both Al Horford and Robert Williams have established themselves as two of the better big-man defenders in the Association, so even though Bam Adebayo is a perennial All-Defensive selection for the Heat, he has little help beyond Cody Zeller against Nikola Jokic. As former Celtics ranter Rick Patino might have said, Alonzo Mourning ain’t walkin’ through that door, folks.
Still, winning four games in a row after falling behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven has never been done in the NBA. So, even though Boston stacks up better against the Nuggets than the Heat probably could, the Celtics actually getting to that stage is a whole different matter. They still need to win one more in enemy territory on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT), where Miami was undefeated this postseason before Game 4. Then, they need to win Game 7 at TD Garden, where Boston had lost five of their past seven games before Game 5.
So, we get why the Celtics are technically still considered a ‘dog for the series even though they are -2.5 favorites to win Game 6 in Miami. Boston still has a slight statistical improbability of pulling off two more wins in a row, and, let’s face it, this squad is living and dying by the three. Over their past eight games, the C’s are 4-0 when they hit 15-plus treys and 0-4 when they hit 12 or fewer. That means one poor shooting night over the next three days and they are done — no margin for error. But “no margin for error” is where these guys seem to love being. Boston is 7-1 in elimination games over the past year and 4-0 in road elimination games.
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Oddsmaking is such a science. The guys making these lines not only take into account the win probability of current and prospective future series, but they also set odds that will generate and dictate action in a way they hope from the betting public. In this case, they make Miami the slight home underdog in Game 6 to garner some Heat action even though Boston has the momentum, hoping the public will smash-bet them with points or +120 on the moneyline. At the same time, they make Miami’s NBA Finals odds longer to increase their action on that futures market while decreasing their liabilities with the Nuggets and Celtics. It’s brilliant.
Of course, Boston could easily poop the proverbial bed in one of these final ECF games, too. By giving the Heat a -135 series advantage, oddsmakers have given Miami a roughly 58-percent implied winning probability. Even if Miami does eke out of this series with a win, oddsmakers only give Spo’s squad a 15-percent implied win probability against Denver. Boston’s implied NBA Finals probability is 26 percent. Both Boston’s and Miami’s odds and implied win probabilities will obviously rise when an ECF champ is crowned, but it’s interesting to see the way books think in the meantime.
MORE: Butler still confident despite Game 5 loss: ‘We are going to win the next game.’
How do we discern all of this as bettors? Well, as always, we recommend three pieces of advice:
Your bankroll is the sum of your instincts, efforts, and internal betting process. Read the odds — and read between the lines — rather than letting the odds dictate you. The more you think like an oddsmaker and understand the motives and strategies behind their lines, the more success you will have as a bettor. In this case, our instincts tell us that Boston continues to carry its momentum into the end of this series and advances to the Finals. However, our instincts — in addition to both betting trends and stats — also tell us that the Nuggets remain the best bet to win it all, regardless of which team from the East gets there.
It’s also imperative that we understand as bettors that other options exist beyond standard moneylines and spreads. If you have Miami winning this series, bet Jimmy Butler at -120 to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP rather than betting the Heat at -135 to win the series. Unless Butler breaks his legs in Game 6, he’s winning MVP if Miami prevails. Regardless of what Stan Van Gundy has been thinking (or drinking), Caleb Martin has not been the best player in this series and will not win MVP unless he starts dropping 50-pieces with a side of BBQ sauce.
Other value bets exist if you think Miami will prevail out of this series. You could get plus odds of +475 on the Heat to win it in seven games. You could also bet Miami to lose to Denver in the Finals at +130. That way, you’re getting much better value than Miami at -150 to win the East and also getting much better value than the Nuggets at -185 to win the NBA Finals. Think a step ahead and bake your total projections into your bet to pump more value into it.
If you like the Celtics to continue this improbable comeback and win this series, you can make one of three bets:
There isn’t much value beyond those three bets. Jayson Tatum is +130 to win MVP, even longer odds than Boston winning the series. He’s a lock if Boston wins, and there’s a glimmer of a chance he could win it even if Boston loses the series (an extremely small glimmer, maybe a five-percent chance). There’s also just one series outcome that leads to the Celtics advancing — Celtics in seven — whereas you can bet Miami to win in six (+125) or seven (+475).
The moral of the story: be more calculated with your betting and think more deeply about (a) what the odds mean, and (b) how you can play the prop market to increase your value and return on investment. Anybody can look at a matchup and make a prediction, but the art of making odds work for you and getting extra bang for your betting buck is the kind of thing that separates seasoned sharps from novice gamblers.
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