Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Manufacturing PMI® at 47.2%; September 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Must read

New Orders and Backlogs Contracting; Production and Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Slowing; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories About Right; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September, matching the figure recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 44.6 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (49.8 percent) is 5 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 44.8 percent. The Prices Index went into contraction (or ‘decreasing’) territory for the first time this year, registering 48.3 percent, down 5.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 54 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the 43.6 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 43.9 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from August’s figure of 46 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing deliveries, registering 52.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the 50.5 percent recorded in August. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 43.9 percent, down 6.4 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 50.3 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 45.3 percent is 3.3 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent registered in August. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory in September, registering 48.3 percent, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 49.6 percent reported in August.”

Fiore continues, “U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in September, and at the same rate compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the (1) New Orders Index remaining in contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (3) Backlog of Orders Index staying in strong contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index indicating customers’ inventories were “about right.” (For more, see the Customers’ Inventories Index summary section.) Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction with mixed results: Employment shrunk at a faster rate while production approached expansion, with levels on par compared to August. Panelists cited continuing efforts by their companies to right-size workforces to levels consistent with projected demand. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventories returning to low levels and suppliers showing some difficulty in meeting customer needs.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty. Production execution stabilized in September. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages reappearing. Seventy-seven percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in September, up from 65 percent in August. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 41 percent in September, an 8-percentage point increase compared to the 33 percent reported in August. Only one of the six largest manufacturing industries — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded in September, compared to two in August,” says Fiore.

The five manufacturing industries reporting growth in September are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 13 industries reporting contraction in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • North America demand has started to weaken. Asian demand is slightly higher but shows signs of weakness in future months. Comments tied to automotive builds.” [Chemical Products]
  • “Global demand continues to remain soft. Fourth-quarter forecasts have been further reduced, with several new programs shifted from 2024 to 2025. Manpower, working capital and supplies are being flexed down in response. The previously anticipated shift from internal combustion engine to electric vehicle (EV) technology has been pushed out due to market response. Long-range plans are being adjusted to incorporate traditional products for longer, while new EV product offerings are being planned for slower rollouts.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • “The second half of 2024 is trending upward enough to more than compensate for the year-over-year losses we experienced in the first half. We are anticipating a record sales volume for 2024.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “The strategy of customer push-outs last year enabled those customers to adapt to the market. Now, while most companies are seeing a slowdown, we are seeing solid growth. The general slowdown in the economy is allowing for prices to continue to stabilize.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “A continuing low order rate is resulting in ongoing manufacturing adjustments to balance output with demand.” [Machinery]
  • “The fourth quarter is slower than anticipated. We won’t realize the effect of interest rate adjustments with new project starts until the first quarter of 2025.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
  • “Business is flat. Waiting for interest rates to drop and the election outcome in November before we confirm our 2025 plans. Currently planning on a flat 2025.” [Furniture & Related Products]
  • “Our sales continue to be flat. Our customers are telling us that although our products perform very well, they are forced to seek lower-cost components to maintain their sales.” [Textile Mills]
  • “Sales have slowed this quarter compared to the same time period last year. Adjusting production accordingly.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • “Still hiring to fill vacant positions in production/management. Not adding new jobs. Automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are starting to slow or cancel orders. The pace is slowing.” [Primary Metals]

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2024

Index

Series
Index

Sep

Series
Index

Aug

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

Manufacturing PMI®

47.2

47.2

0.0

Contracting

Same

6

New Orders

46.1

44.6

+1.5

Contracting

Slower

6

Production

49.8

44.8

+5.0

Contracting

Slower

4

Employment

43.9

46.0

-2.1

Contracting

Faster

4

Supplier Deliveries

52.2

50.5

+1.7

Slowing

Faster

3

Inventories

43.9

50.3

-6.4

Contracting

From Growing

1

Customers’ Inventories

50.0

48.4

+1.6

About Right

From Too Low

1

Prices

48.3

54.0

-5.7

Decreasing

From Increasing

1

Backlog of Orders

44.1

43.6

+0.5

Contracting

Slower

24

New Export Orders

45.3

48.6

-3.3

Contracting

Faster

4

Imports

48.3

49.6

-1.3

Contracting

Faster

4

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Same

53

Manufacturing Sector

Contracting

Same

6

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (10); Corrugate (3); Corrugated Boxes (3); Electrical Components (5); Ocean Freight (5); Plastic Resins (9); Polypropylene Resin (3); Steel Products*; and Synthetic Fibers.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum* (2); Copper (3); Crude Oil; Diesel Fuel; Steel (5); Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products* (4).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (48); and Electronic Components (6).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2024 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI® 
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent, the same reading as in August. “After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last six months. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (Supplier Deliveries) was in expansion territory, the same as in August. The New Orders and Production indexes remained in contraction but moved upward in September. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) registered growth,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 53rd straight month after last contracting in April 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the September reading (47.2 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.3 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Sep 2024

47.2

Mar 2024

50.3

Aug 2024

47.2

Feb 2024

47.8

Jul 2024

46.8

Jan 2024

49.1

Jun 2024

48.5

Dec 2023

47.1

May 2024

48.7

Nov 2023

46.6

Apr 2024

49.2

Oct 2023

46.9

Average for 12 months – 48.0

High – 50.3

Low – 46.6

New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month, registering 46.1 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to August’s figure of 44.6 percent. The New Orders Index hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased new orders. Panelists noted a continued level of uncertainty and concern about a lack of new order activity — with a 1-to-1.5 ratio of positive comments versus those expressing concern — and their confidence in the future economic environment remains at its lowest levels since the coronavirus pandemic recovery. Many comments noted that companies’ focus is now on 2025 business planning as they await the impacts of lower interest rates and the U.S. election results,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in September are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 11 industries reporting a decline in new orders in September — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2024

17.6

56.1

26.3

-8.7

46.1

Aug 2024

16.7

57.1

26.2

-9.5

44.6

Jul 2024

19.0

53.0

28.0

-9.0

47.4

Jun 2024

20.3

59.1

20.6

-0.3

49.3

Production
The Production Index continued in contraction territory in September, registering 49.8 percent, 5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 44.8 percent. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products) reported increased production. “As they closed the third quarter, panelists’ companies maintained output levels compared to August. New order rates remain weak, and backlog levels continue to decline (though at slightly slower rates). Companies continue to avoid investing in inventory due to economic uncertainty that may be alleviated Federal Reserve actions at the end of September,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The five industries reporting growth in production during the month of September are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in production in September, in order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2024

17.6

60.7

21.7

-4.1

49.8

Aug 2024

12.6

66.2

21.2

-8.6

44.8

Jul 2024

15.2

60.1

24.7

-9.5

45.9

Jun 2024

22.8

56.9

20.3

+2.5

48.5

Employment
ISM®‘s Employment Index registered 43.9 percent in September, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 46 percent. The July, August and September readings are among the five lowest recorded since the index registered 43.7 percent in July 2020, early in the economic recovery. (The others are 45.9 percent in February 2024 and 45 percent in July 2023.) “The index contracted for the fourth consecutive month after an expansion in May, which broke a seven-month streak of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery) expanded employment in September. Respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. This sentiment was supported in September by the approximately 1-to-1.5 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the two industries reporting employment growth in September are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in employment in September, in the following order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2024

8.0

69.3

22.7

-14.7

43.9

Aug 2024

10.0

70.9

19.1

-9.1

46.0

Jul 2024

9.8

68.7

21.5

-11.7

43.4

Jun 2024

16.8

66.1

17.1

-0.3

49.3

Supplier Deliveries
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 52.2 percent, a 1.7-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 50.5 percent reported in August. This is the third month of slower deliveries after four consecutive months of faster deliveries. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory the following month and remained there for 20 out of 21 months until February. Of the six big industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products) reported slower supplier deliveries in September. “Supplier deliveries are slowing as panelists’ companies continue to rely on their suppliers to manage their purchased material inventories, which is putting strain on the supply chain,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The eight manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The two industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September are: Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. Eight industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September as compared to August.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Net

Index

Sep 2024

10.4

83.6

6.0

+4.4

52.2

Aug 2024

10.1

80.7

9.2

+0.9

50.5

Jul 2024

11.7

81.7

6.6

+5.1

52.6

Jun 2024

8.8

82.0

9.2

-0.4

49.8

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 43.9 percent in September, down a substantial 6.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 50.3 percent reported in August. “Manufacturing inventories returned to their unusually low levels prior to August, as the timing mismatch with production the previous month was resolved in September. Of the six big industries, none reported increased manufacturing inventories in September,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the only industry to report higher inventories in September is Petroleum & Coal Products. The 12 industries reporting lower inventories in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2024

11.2

66.5

22.3

-11.1

43.9

Aug 2024

18.7

64.7

16.6

+2.1

50.3

Jul 2024

12.2

63.3

24.5

-12.3

44.5

Jun 2024

11.3

67.9

20.8

-9.5

45.4

Customers’ Inventories
ISM®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index registered a reading of 50 percent in September, up 1.6 percentage points compared to the 48.4 percent reported in August. “Customers’ inventory levels in September were ‘about right.’ Panelists are reporting that the amounts of their products in their customers’ inventories suggest a demand level that is neutral to negative for future new orders and production,” says Fiore.

The four industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in September, in order, are: Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in September as compared to August.

Customers’
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

 

Net

 

Index

Sep 2024

76

13.2

73.6

13.2

0.0

50.0

Aug 2024

77

12.3

72.2

15.5

-3.2

48.4

Jul 2024

79

13.5

64.5

22.0

-8.5

45.8

Jun 2024

78

13.6

67.5

18.9

-5.3

47.4

Prices
The ISM® Prices Index registered 48.3 percent, a notable 5.7 percentage points lower compared to the August reading of 54 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in September after eight straight months of increases, preceded by eight consecutive months of decreases. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery — reported price increases in September. “The Prices Index indicated decreasing prices in September, compared to the previous month. Commodity prices were less volatile, with (1) petroleum-derived products showing weakness, (2) aluminum indicating slowing growth, (3) corrugate and ocean freight continuing growth and (4) steel and steel products prices easing. Thirteen percent of companies reported higher prices in September, compared to 21 percent in August,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, the seven industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September, in order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2024

12.9

70.7

16.4

-3.5

48.3

Aug 2024

21.4

65.2

13.4

+8.0

54.0

Jul 2024

22.6

60.5

16.9

+5.7

52.9

Jun 2024

20.2

63.8

16.0

+4.2

52.1

Backlog of Orders
ISM®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.1 percent, a gain of 0.5 percentage point compared to the August reading of 43.6 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 24th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Computer & Electronic Products reported expanded order backlogs in September. “The index remained in contraction in September, as contracting new orders and stable production levels versus August were insufficient to allow backlogs to significantly grow,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, two reported growth in order backlogs in September: Textile Mills; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 13 industries reporting lower backlogs in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

 

%Higher

 

%Same

 

%Lower

 

Net

 

Index

Sep 2024

92

14.5

59.1

26.4

-11.9

44.1

Aug 2024

91

13.1

61.0

25.9

-12.8

43.6

Jul 2024

91

12.9

57.5

29.6

-16.7

41.7

Jun 2024

90

10.7

61.9

27.4

-16.7

41.7

New Export Orders
ISM®‘s New Export Orders Index registered 45.3 percent in September, down 3.3 percentage points from August’s reading of 48.6 percent. “The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders contracted for a fourth month after expanding in May and contracting in April, with two straight months of expansion before that. New export orders remain sluggish as international trading partners continue to struggle with weak economies,” says Fiore.

The two industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

 

%Higher

 

%Same

 

%Lower

 

Net

 

Index

Sep 2024

73

7.2

76.1

16.7

-9.5

45.3

Aug 2024

74

7.2

82.8

10.0

-2.8

48.6

Jul 2024

74

8.9

80.2

10.9

-2.0

49.0

Jun 2024

73

10.3

76.9

12.8

-2.5

48.8

Imports
ISM®‘s Imports Index continued to indicate cooling in September; the reading of 48.3 percent is a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to August’s figure of 49.6 percent. “Imports contracted for the fourth month in a row after five consecutive months of expansion, preceded by 14 consecutive months of contraction. Panelists’ companies are recovering from the short-term rail issues in Canada but continue to limit their investments in inventory, as overall growth prospects remain unclear. Ocean freight costs continue to rise and access to equipment remains challenged. Inbound international freight delivery precision is a challenge due to continuing global conflict in the Red Sea and potential for a labor action on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports,” says Fiore.

The seven industries reporting an increase in import volumes in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Machinery. The seven industries that reported lower volumes of imports in September, in order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Imports

%
Reporting

 

%Higher

 

%Same

 

%Lower

 

Net

 

Index

Sep 2024

82

10.2

76.2

13.6

-3.4

48.3

Aug 2024

84

10.1

78.9

11.0

-0.9

49.6

Jul 2024

84

9.8

77.5

12.7

-2.9

48.6

Jun 2024

83

8.7

79.6

11.7

-3.0

48.5

The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 174 days, an increase of seven days compared to August. Average lead time in September for Production Materials was 80 days, an increase of one day compared to August. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, an increase of three days compared to August.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2024

16

3

10

13

30

28

174

Aug 2024

16

5

11

12

30

26

167

Jul 2024

16

3

7

14

32

28

177

Jun 2024

14

3

11

14

28

30

179

Percent Reporting

Production
Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2024

7

26

28

27

7

5

80

Aug 2024

6

29

26

26

9

4

79

Jul 2024

7

29

25

27

8

4

77

Jun 2024

8

24

27

28

9

4

80

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2024

27

37

19

11

5

1

46

Aug 2024

30

35

20

11

3

1

43

Jul 2024

28

35

19

13

4

1

46

Jun 2024

29

36

16

14

5

0

43

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers’ Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers’ stock levels of respondent companies’ products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers’ Inventories Index, numerically, a reading of 50 percent is “about right.” However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers’ inventories may be considered to be “about right” if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right).

The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM”) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) (“ISM ROB”) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, “Content”) of ISM (“ISM ROB Content”). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring October 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, November 1, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:       

Kristina Cahill


Report On Business® Analyst


ISM®, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona


+1 480.455.5910


Email: [email protected]

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

WANT YOUR COMPANY’S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM?

icon3

440k+
Newsrooms &
Influencers

icon1

9k+
Digital Media
Outlets

icon2

270k+
Journalists
Opted In

Latest article